Early 2018 I made an accurate prediction what the value of Bitcoin in $ would be by the end of that year. At least this prediction was much closer to that of some of the best known names in the industry, like Fundstrat’s Tommy Lee and the person I responded too in this tweet (Ran NeuNer).
Personally I think a more likely scenario will be a/outcome of tether scandal wipes of another 50% b/G20 in march will pose new regulations -30% c/new freeze period for 4 yrs. So bitcoin around 2.000 by 2019.
— Ewald Kegel (@EwaldKegel) February 2, 2018
Even in recent days the most crazy predictions about the future bitcoin prices are circulating. I think the most outrageous one was made by John McAfee.
Jesus! The media yet again! "By Dec. 31. 2020", is not an exact date. Let's all be clear again: I predicted Bitcoin would reach $1,000,000 before the end of 2020. That is not saying it will hit that price on that date.https://t.co/hfB3zI8mUl
— John McAfee (@officialmcafee) February 22, 2019
I followed in 2018 closely how the Bitcoin price was influenced by economic circumstances. I expected for example the crisis with the Turkish lyra to have a positive effect by inflow of money from Turkey. I did not see such correlation. The 2018 price saw one constant: it went lower and lower with in between some higher lows.In November 2018 the price saw an extreme, accelerated dive to a level around $3.000 coming from a rather constant period where it remained around $6.000. It is difficult to determine what makes the price ‘tick’, it mainly seems to be influenced by matters of mass psychology and speculation. The down fall in November 2018 could be explained by the Bitcoin Cash fork and its influence on Bitmain, a large supplier of Bitcoin mining equipment and one of the initiators behind Bitcoin Cash. So the area of price discovery not has ended yet and it is easy to forget the world has never seen a phenomenon like Bitcoin and its relatively recent entering on the financial world stage.
From November 2019 on the price stabilised and February 2019 saw some price increments to a current level of around $3.950. I consider the fundamentals of Bitcoin still strong. The ignorance of people about its potential is still staggering. Repeatedly the same arguments why it should considered worthless crop up and it will take time to prove they are using false arguments.
It is difficult to predict if we will see in 2019 other influences than pyschology and speculation driving the price level. Most and for all there will be the memory of the price fall from $20.000 to $3.000 and the horrible stories in the media of people’s investments being wiped out. That effect will take time to come to terms with before we will see any major influx in the Bitcoin ecosystem again. But eventually people will forget the 2017-2018 price developments. But will there be other factors that come into play positively influencing its price?
There are no similar products to make any kind of comparison as to predict the prices. It is not comparable to stock, where a company’s -future- profits might drive the price. It is even hard to compare to precious metals due to its different nature of portability, mining and distribution. Evangelisation and education will be in coming years the main incentive for a positive image of Bitcoin and therefor the price development. In its narrative the negativity about the 2018 experiences should be seen in a bigger picture: the current price level would be considered spectacular even as recent as one and half year ago (mid 2017). The core arguments for evangelisation remain merely the same as in the past: non-tampering, non-inflatable, non-governmental and trustful storage.
2017 was the year that Bitcoin was catapulted in a world that before was ignorant about the phenomenon of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin in particular. Besides attracting a new group of investors in general it also attracted professional traders. These are people that make their living with day trading and speculating on short term price developments (like shorting) instead of following a long term path for positive price developments (‘hodling’). With the introduction of new financial products into the Bitcoin ecosystem (like futures and ETF’s) these developments will make it more difficult than in 2017 to see extravagant price explosions: profits will be take sooner or speculated against.
Innovations like Lightning Network (LN) might contribute to some positive signal in price development, but there should be reason for caution: technological innovations in the past an sich have never been a clear driver for price developments. In the case of LN it might be slightly different due to the fact that it is a recognisable utility of Bitcoin.
My conclusion is therefor that the Bitcoin price in December 2019 will see a small improvement over today’s levels: $5.000. Mid 2020 a new halving of block rewards will kick in. Historically that has been a driver for a higher Bitcoin price. So then we might finally see a new, though limited bull run and a new treshold minimum level of Bitcoin’s price (app. $ 6.000). In December 2020 I expect to see a maximum price level of $18.000.
Nootdorp, The Netherlands, February 23th, 2019